As the Conclave of Cardinals prepares to convene at the Vatican to elect a new Pope, a concerning phenomenon is emerging on online platforms: betting. Online betting platforms are proliferating, with wagers centered on the identity of the next Pope, stirring public controversy.
Although the Conclave is a significant and sacred event for the Catholic Church, the emergence of betting at this time has raised concerns about exploitation and its negative impact on the Church’s reputation, as well as on the faithful worldwide.
Following the funeral of Pope Francis, betting markets opened. Who received the most votes? After the Vatican organized the funeral and burial ceremonies, it was time to return to reality, with bookmakers beginning to offer odds on the next Pope.
The current favorite in the betting markets is Pietro Parolin, with odds of +225. Here, faith meets the sacred art, standing before the challenges of the secular world. A question that is not easy to answer: Can the Holy Spirit prevail over the waves of the market?
In Vietnam, this can be understood simply as an informal form of election, driven by the preferences and curiosity of people, whether religious, non-religious, or even atheists, as long as they have a Gmail account or a social media profile.
Similar to Vietnam, during the U.S. election, about 80% of Vietnamese people expressed support for Mr. Trump as U.S. President, despite not being U.S. citizens. Modern betting has become a global phenomenon.
According to The Guardian on April 25, 2025, immediately after the passing of Pope Francis, online betting platforms worldwide quickly opened markets related to the next Pope.
The development of technology and cryptocurrency has elevated this activity to new heights, attracting millions of participants from every continent. Polymarket, a cryptocurrency-based betting platform, recorded over $6 million in wagers within just a few days of the news breaking.
Bookmakers on this platform provide highly detailed odds for each potential candidate, from prominent Cardinals to lesser-known names.
According to Polymarket, Cardinal Parolin leads with 26% of the votes. Close behind is a familiar figure, the Asian Catholic Cardinal Luis Antonio Tagle from the Philippines, with 19% of the vote share. At one point, the two were neck-and-neck, with Parolin at 37% and Tagle at 26%. In third place is Cardinal Peter Turkson, with 18%.
Turkson, aged 76, could be the first Pope from sub-Saharan Africa, a region where the Church is growing. Like many Cardinals from this continent, he leans conservative.
The story of electing a Pope today carries the hallmarks of a trend: curiosity, entertainment, and even gambling, with no shortage of people who cannot distinguish the Holy See from a courthouse yet still cast their votes as if they know.
In the UK, Betfair, though smaller in scale, saw an influx of betting money totaling around £8,000 in a short period. Bets not only revolved around predicting the next Pope but also extended to factors such as nationality, age, or even the duration of the Conclave.
Additionally, other betting platforms like Paddy Power and William Hill joined the race with aggressive advertising campaigns on social media and sports websites, making this phenomenon a hot topic on public forums.
In the past, electing a Pope was the business of Cardinals, conducted behind closed doors, with prayers for the Holy Spirit’s guidance. Today, it has become a topic of casual chatter on Reddit, YouTube Shorts, and TikTok. A Cardinal with a charismatic face, an impressive resume, fluency in English, or high Google SEO rankings easily becomes a top contender.
Does the sacred retain its value when influenced by betting odds, algorithms, and view counts, or is this global attention a new way of engaging with the Church? It’s not easy to say, but the boundary between religious faith and the media frenzy is clearly blurring.
Looking at the current landscape, Cardinal Pietro Parolin, the Vatican’s Secretary of State, a seasoned diplomat fluent in multiple languages and trusted by Pope Francis, is the leading candidate.
Meanwhile, Cardinal Luis Antonio Tagle, with his youthful, approachable image and messages aimed at young people, Asians, and marginalized communities, symbolizes the Church’s expansion beyond Europe. Research highlights several key points. First, Cardinal Pietro Parolin.
He is currently the Vatican’s Secretary of State and is considered the top candidate on betting boards. With extensive diplomatic experience and closeness to Pope Francis’s papacy, he is widely trusted to be the successor. Parolin is renowned as an experienced Vatican diplomat, seen as a compromise candidate between progressives and conservatives within the Church.
Although he once called the global legalization of same-sex marriage a “failure of humanity,” he has never been a loud warrior in the Church’s cultural battles. However, as The Guardian noted, the Conclave of Cardinals is famously secretive, with the outside world only learning the truth when white smoke rises from the Sistine Chapel’s chimney.
History has shown that predictions from the outside world are often inaccurate, as the Conclave does not operate on the logic of markets or public opinion. Cardinal Parolin is currently seen as the leading candidate for the next papacy, but it is not certain. As the Vatican’s Secretary of State since 2013, Cardinal Parolin, 70, from Veneto, is the highest-ranking member of the electoral Conclave.
Rather than aligning with left or right political tendencies, Cardinal Parolin has long been regarded as a prudent, moderate figure in the Church. Most recently, Cardinal Parolin gave an interview to the Italian newspaper Libero, commenting on geopolitical issues.
He said, “Everyone can contribute to peace, but solutions must never be pursued through unilateral impositions that risk trampling on the rights of entire populations, or there will never be a just and lasting peace.”
An insider from the Vatican told The Independent, “It’s hard to know if he (Parolin) is truly the leading candidate because this group of Cardinals is very enigmatic, or perhaps a very strange group that doesn’t really know each other. What they consider a good candidate may differ greatly from what the media reports.
Parolin is a very safe choice because everyone knows him. He is kind to everyone and never conflicts with anyone. He has worked at the Vatican for over a decade and knows how to operate.” Second, Cardinal Luis Antonio Tagle, the seventh Filipino to become a Cardinal. Cardinal Tagle would be the first Asian Pope.
This 67-year-old Cardinal currently serves as the Deputy Director of the First Missionary Division of the Dicastery for Evangelization, having been elevated to Cardinal by Pope Benedict XVI. He is the most liberal among the frontrunners and is often called “Francis II” due to his similarities with the late Pope.
Cardinal Tagle often expresses more left-leaning political views, similar to Pope Francis, and has criticized the Church’s attitude and language toward homosexuals, unmarried mothers, and Catholics who are divorced or remarried.
In 2015, he said, “The harsh words used in the past to refer to homosexuals, those who are divorced and separated, unmarried mothers, and so on. In the past, they were quite severe. Many in those groups were labeled, which led to their isolation from broader society.”
However, some within the Vatican question whether he is a candidate who garners significant media attention but lacks real support from the Cardinals who will make the final decision. Following Pope Francis’s death at 88, the world’s attention is now focused on who will succeed him.
Predicting who will be chosen as the next leader of nearly 1.4 billion Catholics worldwide is incredibly difficult. In theory, any baptized Catholic man could become Pope.
In practice, however, the next Pope will likely be chosen from the Cardinals who will gather in the Sistine Chapel at the Vatican for the secret papal election, known as the Conclave of Cardinals.
This time, no candidate stands out, making the guessing game even more challenging. Predicting the next Pope as the secular challenges the sacred. Clearly, the development of technology, social media, and especially cryptocurrency has blurred the lines between insiders and outsiders.
An atheist in Asia with a social media account can pick the next Pope as if selecting the MVP of a football season. This recalls a rather amusing but real phenomenon: about 80% of Vietnamese supported Mr. Trump for U.S. President, despite none having the right to vote. One represents experience and the old structure, the other a fresh breeze from rising continents.
This contest, unless God intervenes unexpectedly, could become a fierce showdown between continuity and innovation. The Pope is the successor to Saint Peter, the first apostle of Jesus, not a title for people to predict.
Yet, in an era of media and globalization, where every value is dissected, the question of who will be the next Pope inevitably becomes a hot topic. What is worth pondering is whether humanity is gradually placing the preferences of the masses above the voice of faith.
If God’s grace is overlooked and betting odds are celebrated, there is a risk that people are not just betting on who will be Pope but gambling with their faith and the judgment of the world. Of course, the election of a new Pope is always a sacred, solemn, and deeply meaningful moment for the global Catholic Church.
In the quiet space of the Sistine Chapel, the Cardinals, guided by the Holy Spirit, discern and elect the successor to Saint Peter. Outside those ancient walls, however, a very different world buzzes with activity, betting on the identity of the next Pope.
This phenomenon is not only a contrast between the sacred and the secular but also raises profound questions about how the modern world views spiritual values. Looking back at a controversial history, betting from the Middle Ages shows that wagering on papal elections is not new.
From the late Middle Ages, as the Catholic Church faced challenges from secular powers, Conclaves for electing Popes were often distorted into political arenas.
Powerful families, emperors, and even wealthy merchants sought to interfere in the election process, turning sacred moments into opportunities for speculation and profit. In the 15th century, major cities like Florence and Venice witnessed open betting markets where people wagered on the next Pope’s identity or the duration of the Conclave.
These activities not only undermined the Church’s sanctity but also caused numerous scandals related to bribery and manipulation. By the 16th century, the situation became so severe that the Church had to intervene. In 1591, Pope Gregory XIV issued a special decree, recorded in history as a robust effort to protect the Conclave’s sanctity.
The decree explicitly banned all forms of betting related to the outcome of the papal election, the duration of a Pope’s reign, or the appointment of new Cardinals. Violators faced excommunication, the Church’s most severe spiritual penalty, meaning they were cut off from the sacraments and the faith community.
Pope Gregory XIV’s decree reflected concerns about the secular encroachment on spiritual matters and served as a reminder that the papal election process must be protected from worldly calculations and interests. Though over four centuries have passed, this decree retains its relevance in the modern context.
However, with the rise of technology and globalization, enforcing this ban has become a greater challenge than ever. The Church faces the modern world. Today, betting is no longer confined to traditional casinos or medieval black markets.
It has been legalized on numerous international platforms, openly promoted, and easily accessible via the internet. Bookmakers use complex algorithms to analyze data, predict trends, and even provide detailed analyses of potential candidates based on their profiles, nationalities, and theological stances.
Some betting platforms integrate artificial intelligence (AI) to predict Conclave outcomes based on factors like a Cardinal’s media presence, analytical articles by Vatican experts, or even posts on social media platforms like X.
This creates a paradox: while the Cardinals pray and discern in silence, the outside world tries to predict God’s will through numbers and algorithms.
In some countries, bookmakers even organize live television programs where commentators discuss betting odds and candidates’ chances of winning, turning a sacred event into an entertainment contest. In response, the Catholic Church has repeatedly voiced concerns.
In a recent message, the Pontifical Council for Culture emphasized that betting on the Conclave’s outcome not only diminishes the event’s solemnity but also reflects a dangerous trend: the commercialization of spiritual values. The Church reminds us that choosing Saint Peter’s successor is not a competition or the result of worldly calculations.
It is a journey of prayer, discernment, and obedience to God’s will. The Conclave of Cardinals is a spiritual journey, where Cardinals act not for personal gain or external pressures but for the good of the entire Church and humanity. The white smoke rising from the Sistine Chapel is not a signal of a successful bet but a sign of new hope, a fresh start for the Church’s mission in the world.
A Call to Transcend the Secular. The phenomenon of betting on the next Pope is not just a story of the sacred versus the secular but also an invitation for everyone, whether believers or not, to reflect on the meaning of faith, hope, and discernment in a turbulent world.
While bookmakers continue to draw attention with numbers and odds, the Catholic Church remains steadfast in its mission: proclaiming the Gospel, safeguarding spiritual values, and guiding humanity toward truth. When the white smoke finally rises from the Sistine Chapel, the world will not only learn the new Pope’s identity but also be reminded of an eternal truth.
Sacred things cannot be swayed by money, power, or human calculations. It is a moment when faith triumphs over doubt, and hope overcomes worldly temptations. For now, let us listen to a Vietnamese priest who shared thought-provoking insights about predicting the next Pope.
A Vietnamese Priest’s Insightful Commentary on Choosing a Pope. Commenting on the speculation about who will succeed Pope Francis, Father Antôn Maria Vũ Quốc Thịnh wrote on his personal Facebook page: “It’s human nature to speculate about this or that position in society and the Church.
In society, we live, experience, and know that elections happen, but the results—everyone knows how they turn out. In our Catholic Church, we must remember the grace of the Holy Spirit. Some websites, claiming to follow ‘children of the light’ or something, promote this or that candidate, along with prophecies.
Yesterday, someone sent me something like this: ‘A 900-year-old prophecy reappears after Pope Francis’s death.’ I read it and laughed because, as I said, it’s all about the grace of the Holy Spirit. Humans often follow their own desires, but God is different. God always draws a straight line with a compass.
Just read and reflect on the Bible, and you’ll see and know. But reading superficially won’t do. The Virgin Mary, an ordinary young woman, was chosen by God to be the Mother of God. Saint Joseph, a humble man, has no words recorded in the Bible. Yet God chose him. Countless Popes, including Pope Francis, were thought of differently before their election, but the outcome was different.
It can be said that no one will ever forget the Pope of mercy. From the start of his mission, the Pope said, ‘I am a sinner.’ Looking back to the Old Testament, who could forget the story of Joseph sold into Egypt, or Samson, the prophets, or King David? God has His ways.
Humans remain trapped in their limited perspectives, even crafting a God according to their desires and preferences, like the ‘children of the light,’ ‘messages from heaven,’ ‘house of the Father,’ and so on. In short, it’s all about the grace of the Holy Spirit. Those who believe in God trust in the Holy Spirit’s grace, and vice versa. Reflect on our lives, and we’ll understand.
Our entire lives are by God’s grace. In these days, let us pray for the Holy Father and for what continues to unfold in the Church.” With my limited knowledge, despite reading many books and studying numerous documents, I must affirm that this priest’s writing reflects someone who has studied, understands, and lives the faith.
His perspective is clear, and I humbly offer commentary on his words. In this time of upheaval, as the Catholic world stands at the threshold of a new historical moment, some are busy speculating about who will succeed Pope Francis.
While online experts churn out conspiracy theories, a priest in Vietnam, Father Antôn Maria Vũ Quốc Thịnh of the Redemptorist Order, living among poor ethnic minorities in the remote An Mai region, speaks with profound, candid, and faith-filled words. His message is neither ornate nor sensational but makes readers pause and reflect.
Father Thịnh begins his post with a familiar truth. It’s human nature to speculate about positions in society and the Church. People, whether it’s big or small matters—from state leadership to the throne of Saint Peter—love to surf the web, gather information, discuss, and predict as if they’re certain.
But as he gently yet poignantly notes, “Elections happen, but the results—everyone knows how they turn out.” What does he mean? It doesn’t need to be spelled out, but those who understand know.
Results often defy human expectations, especially in the Church, where the Holy Spirit is the one who holds the scales. On social media recently, many self-proclaimed “children of the light” have spread all sorts of prophecies, from 900-year-old oracles to messages from heaven, painting vivid scenarios after Pope Francis’s passing.
To these, Father Thịnh simply looks and laughs. Why? Because, as he bluntly states, it’s all about the grace of the Holy Spirit. It sounds simple, but it reflects unwavering faith. He doesn’t dismiss prophecies out of prejudice but because he believes God doesn’t need anyone to play director. Humans love crafting scripts, but God draws a straight line with a compass.
This means God’s ways are clear and coherent, yet no one can grasp them with worldly logic. Father Thịnh reminds us: the Virgin Mary was just an ordinary young woman. Saint Joseph, silent throughout the Bible, left no recorded words. Yet they were chosen to bear and nurture the Savior. So, who could have predicted that? Pope Francis was the same.
Before his election, people thought differently, but upon taking up his mission, he said the words that moved many to tears: “I am a sinner.” A Pope who began his mission not with the aura of power but with humility and mercy. That was God’s choice, not humanity’s score. He critiques the habit of crafting a God according to one’s desires and preferences.
Father Thịnh points to groups that self-appoint divine missions but are, in reality, imposing their egos on God’s plan. Human perspectives are always narrow, selfish, and judgmental. God, conversely, chooses silence, patience, and surprises. “Reflect on our lives, and we’ll understand. Our entire lives are by God’s grace.”
Father Thịnh concludes with a wake-up call. The choice of who becomes Pope lies not with online prophecies but in the hands of the Holy Spirit. Father Antôn Maria Vũ Quốc Thịnh paints no grand visions or rallies for any faction, only gently inviting: let us pray for the Holy Father and for what continues to unfold in the Church.
The worldly love to calculate, but God’s people choose trust. In these chaotic times, Father Thịnh’s post is perhaps the most sobering reminder. The call and authority in the Church come not from human votes but from the grace of the Holy Spirit. And as he says, God is still drawing a straight line with a compass while humanity keeps measuring the curves of its heart.
The Flowerless Funeral of Pope Francis. Here is another post shared wilderness by Father Antôn Maria Vũ Quốc Thịnh on his personal page about the flowerless funeral of Pope Francis. Utterly simple, a death that speaks of an entire life. No candles, no flowers, no lavish portraits.
That was everything absent from the funeral of the leader of the universal Catholic Church, Pope Francis. Amid the majestic Saint Peter’s Basilica, there was only a plain wooden coffin, unadorned, without carvings or gilded paint—and it didn’t need them. Because that very simplicity was the most Gospel-like testament he left behind, a flowerless funeral for Pope Francis.
Many who read this will likely pause, for this is not just about a funeral but a death that encapsulates a life. A death that forces society to reflect on itself, where people increasingly chase appearances, craving grandeur, pomp, and spectacle for the world to see. Some say a funeral must have wreaths to be proper, a portrait to be neat, candles to be warm.
Sure, that sounds reasonable, but then we must ask: proper for whom, neat for whom? Perhaps it’s just to satisfy the curious eyes around us, rather than doing right by the deceased. Pope Francis chose to live like the poor throughout his life. He didn’t need glory; he didn’t chase thrones.
He once said, “The Church must be poor and for the poor,” and he lived exactly that way, simple to the core. His funeral was gentle, quiet, without fanfare or grandeur, but it was a resounding voice in an era fond of ostentation. Grandeur isn’t necessary for reverence. People ask: is such pomp needed if the deceased lived simply their whole life?
This is not just a question for a funeral but for an entire life. He said the Church must be poor and for the poor. And so he lived poor, died poor, without show, without a legacy of power, without leaving behind praises, only a single image: a plain wooden coffin lying quietly in the basilica, but a resolute profession of faith.
The simplicity of Pope Francis was not fleeting. It was a way of life, a hallmark, a wake-up call for a society drowning in formalism. He chose poverty so the Gospel’s values could flourish. He chose silence so truth could speak louder than a thousand empty words. Some choose a grandiose death, with crowds of mourners and hundreds of wreaths piling up.
But others, like Pope Francis, choose a quiet death. Because he lived fully through his actions, needing no further performance or staging. That plain wooden coffin wasn’t bland; it was a proclamation: “I lived for God, I lived for humanity, and I depart in peace as a pilgrim returning to the Father’s house.”
Some call it poverty, but it’s the poverty of a great soul. Some say it makes the funeral look too empty. But that emptiness fills hearts more deeply. Today’s world craves everything flashy: large portraits, grand wreaths, lavish funeral homes, hearses stretching kilometers, hired mourners filling the skies. But in the end, what do we leave behind besides the event of the funeral? A beautiful portrait, or a heart that lived truly, loved truly, and lived the faith it chose?
Greatness needs no embellishment, holiness needs no proof, and faith needs no display. In an era where people are ready to die by protocol, Pope Francis’s funeral followed no protocol except that of truth. He needed no hired mourners, no velvet drapes, no heaps of fresh flowers, because his life was more than enough to say it all.
Today’s silence is the loudest echo. Today’s simplicity is the richest sermon. Today’s gentle departure is proof of a life of depth, faith, and humanity. Pope Francis lived as a poor father and died as a true disciple. He left behind no gold or fame but a complete full stop to a journey lived true to the Gospel.
That flowerless funeral lacked nothing, because the only thing needed was the presence of truth. Thank you for teaching us to live so that when we die, we need no praises, no dazzling candles or flowers, yet remain fulfilled, serene, and beautiful like a final prayer.
May each of us, when we close our eyes, smile as he did and say: “I lived fully, I lived rightly, and now I depart in peace.”
Farewell, Pope Francis, the Pope of mercy and humility. He needed no cold stone monuments; he became a living monument etched in the hearts of those left behind. Not through miracles but through a simple, honest life, quiet but piercing to the soul. And in the end, he departed as he lived.
Silently, needing no crowds to see him off, no wreaths to be remembered, no candlelight to be great, because greatness sometimes lies in a plain wooden coffin amidst a splendid basilica. For holiness needs no external proof, and faith needs no show—just live rightly.
May all who live learn from him a simple lesson: live truly, love truly, and depart lightly as a sincere disciple of the Gospel.
Pope Francis tirelessly called on the world to open its heart to the poor, the forgotten, and our wounded earth. He ignited in countless hearts, whether Christian or of other faiths, a belief in goodness and the healing power of compassion and forgiveness.
Now that God has called him home, humanity worldwide mourns but also overflows with profound gratitude. Gratitude for a life of total dedication. Gratitude for a shepherd who stayed with his flock, unafraid of the dust of the road. May the light of his life continue to guide the world today. Amen.
The surge in betting during the Conclave is not only a concerning legal and ethical issue but also reflects the exploitation of a religious event for illicit profit. This raises questions about the need to strengthen management and oversight in cyberspace, especially regarding significant religious events.
Authorities and communities must act to protect the sanctity of religious rituals while remaining vigilant against the potential risks of online scams.
Edited by CGVST.COM
